Several recent elections in Latin America have seen the collapse, or at least the defeat, of the moderate centre. It was true of Chile’s presidential election last month, of Peru’s earlier this year and of those in Brazil and Colombia in 2018. Will it be true of the next big election in the region, in Colombia in May? There are reasons to think that, in this case, a victory for the centre would not just be especially beneficial, but also that it might come about.
That is not the conventional forecast. Many analysts believe that next year’s contest will be a repeat, in reverse, of the previous one. In a run-off in 2018 Iván Duque, a protégé of Álvaro Uribe, a former president of the populist right, defeated Gustavo Petro, a populist of the left, by 56% to 44%. In a poll of voting intentions by Invamer, published this week, Mr. Petro is way out in front with 42%, ahead of Sergio Fajardo of the centre-left (with 19%) and a host of also-rans. Mr. Petro would easily defeat any opponent in a run-off, the pollster thinks.